TOR
LAL
Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Home court: the Lakers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Raptors defense that ranks 8th.
- Three-point shooting: Lakers 9th (36.3%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 3 time zones.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Lakers 22nd (14.9).
- The Raptors' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 15th in the NBA) meets a Lakers defense that ranks 20th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 15 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Lakers 11th (14.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -2.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.1 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · LAL n/a | TOR 44% · LAL 56% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +128 · LAL -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 115, Raptors 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 15 and Lakers by 19.
Side by side
| TOR | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | 2025-26 | TOR 93 @ LAL 110 | LAL |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | LAL 123 @ TOR 120 | LAL |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024-25 | TOR 103 @ LAL 123 | LAL |
| 2024-11-01 | 2024-25 | LAL 131 @ TOR 125 | LAL |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | LAL 128 @ TOR 111 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works