TOR
MEM
Toronto Raptors @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8).
- The Raptors' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 15th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Raptors 9th (+3.0), Grizzlies 22nd (-5.0).
- The Raptors' offense (112.4 points per 100 possessions, 15th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 22nd.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Grizzlies win 4,850 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.3 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · MEM n/a | TOR 52% · MEM 48% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -106 · MEM +106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 114, Raptors 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 17 and Grizzlies by 16.
Side by side
| TOR | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 5-0 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | TOR 128 @ MEM 96 | TOR |
| 2025-11-02 | 2025-26 | MEM 104 @ TOR 117 | TOR |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | MEM 138 @ TOR 107 | MEM |
| 2024-12-26 | 2024-25 | TOR 126 @ MEM 155 | MEM |
| 2024-01-22 | 2023-24 | MEM 108 @ TOR 100 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works