TOR
MIA
Toronto Raptors @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Heat -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Heat 17th (14.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Heat win 3,990 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Heat 12th (35.9%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Heat 8th (74.6%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · MIA n/a | TOR 60% · MIA 40% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -151 · MIA +151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 115, Raptors 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 20 and Heat by 13.
Side by side
| TOR | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | MIA 114 @ TOR 128 | TOR |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | MIA 95 @ TOR 121 | TOR |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | TOR 112 @ MIA 91 | TOR |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | TOR 106 @ MIA 96 | TOR |
| 2025-02-21 | 2024-25 | MIA 120 @ TOR 111 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works