TOR
MIN
Toronto Raptors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Timberwolves
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Timberwolves can win
- Simulation: the Timberwolves win 5,860 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Timberwolves play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Timberwolves 6th (36.7%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to the Timberwolves in our ratings.
- History: the Timberwolves won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Timberwolves may not
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,140 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Timberwolves lose by 14 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Raptors 8th (13.6), Timberwolves 16th (14.3).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -2.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 227.8 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · MIN n/a | TOR 41% · MIN 59% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +141 · MIN -141 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Timberwolves 116, Raptors 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 14 and Timberwolves by 20.
Side by side
| TOR | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +2.6 11 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 112.7 13 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 110.1 8 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 9 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 52.8% 5 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.3 16 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 26.0% 13 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.7% 6 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 103.8 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | TOR 94 @ MIN 117 | MIN |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | TOR 107 @ MIN 115 | MIN |
| 2026-02-04 | 2025-26 | MIN 128 @ TOR 126 | MIN |
| 2024-11-21 | 2024-25 | MIN 105 @ TOR 110 | TOR |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024-25 | TOR 101 @ MIN 112 | MIN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works