TOR
NOP
Toronto Raptors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Pelicans -2.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Pelicans 21st (-4.2).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Home court: the Pelicans play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Pelicans win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Pelicans 5th (0.22), Raptors 17th (0.21).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Pelicans 9th (26.7%), Raptors 15th (25.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.3 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · NOP n/a | TOR 63% · NOP 37% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -173 · NOP +173 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pelicans 114, Raptors 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 21 and Pelicans by 12.
Side by side
| TOR | NOP | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -4.2 21 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 111.2 18 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 115.4 23 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 52.8% 26 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.5% 23 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.8 10 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 26.7% 9 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 34.4% 25 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 104.1 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | NOP 106 @ TOR 119 | TOR |
| 2026-03-11 | 2025-26 | TOR 111 @ NOP 122 | NOP |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | NOP 104 @ TOR 113 | TOR |
| 2024-11-27 | 2024-25 | TOR 119 @ NOP 93 | TOR |
| 2024-03-05 | 2023-24 | NOP 139 @ TOR 98 | NOP |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works