TOR
NYK
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
NYKNew York Knicks
57% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Knicks can win
- Simulation: the Knicks win 5,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Knicks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Three-point shooting: Knicks 3rd (37.5%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Knicks 3rd (+7.6), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Knicks 1st (76.9%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
Disadvantages Why Knicks may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Knicks +0.2.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,320 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Knicks lose by 15 or more.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Knicks 15th (14.3).
- Weak spot: the Knicks rank 25th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.19).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYK -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 221.6 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · NYK n/a | TOR 43% · NYK 57% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +131 · NYK -131 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Knicks 112, Raptors 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 15 and Knicks by 19.
Side by side
| TOR | NYK | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +7.6 3 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 116.4 3 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 108.7 4 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 5 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 53.3% 7 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.7 9 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 29.3% 5 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 37.5% 3 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 99.8 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | TOR 95 @ NYK 112 | NYK |
| 2026-03-03 | 2025-26 | NYK 111 @ TOR 95 | NYK |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | NYK 119 @ TOR 92 | NYK |
| 2025-12-09 | 2025-26 | NYK 117 @ TOR 101 | NYK |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | TOR 94 @ NYK 116 | NYK |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works