TOR
OKC
Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
59% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Simulation: the Thunder win 5,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Thunder play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Thunder 1st (+10.2), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Thunder +3.6.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 4,070 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 14 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Raptors 15th (25.7%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 222.7 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · OKC n/a | TOR 41% · OKC 59% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +146 · OKC -146 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 113, Raptors 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 14 and Thunder by 20.
Side by side
| TOR | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | OKC 116 @ TOR 107 | OKC |
| 2026-01-25 | 2025-26 | TOR 103 @ OKC 101 | TOR |
| 2025-02-07 | 2024-25 | TOR 109 @ OKC 121 | OKC |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-25 | OKC 129 @ TOR 92 | OKC |
| 2024-03-22 | 2023-24 | OKC 123 @ TOR 103 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works