TOR
ORL
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Magic -12.5.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Magic 17th (-0.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Magic win 3,870 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Magic 5th (75.2%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 13 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Magic 1st (0.25), Raptors 17th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.8 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · ORL n/a | TOR 61% · ORL 39% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -158 · ORL +158 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 112, Raptors 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 21 and Magic by 13.
Side by side
| TOR | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | ORL 99 @ TOR 129 | TOR |
| 2026-03-29 | 2025-26 | ORL 87 @ TOR 139 | TOR |
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | TOR 120 @ ORL 130 | ORL |
| 2025-12-29 | 2025-26 | ORL 106 @ TOR 107 | TOR |
| 2025-03-04 | 2024-25 | TOR 114 @ ORL 113 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works