TOR
PHI
Toronto Raptors @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
54% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, 76ers +3.4.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), 76ers 20th (-0.9).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.4 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the 76ers win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 16 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): 76ers 7th (0.22), Raptors 17th (0.21).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.5 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · PHI n/a | TOR 54% · PHI 46% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -115 · PHI +115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 113, Raptors 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 18 and 76ers by 16.
Side by side
| TOR | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 4-1 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | PHI 115 @ TOR 102 | PHI |
| 2026-01-11 | 2025-26 | PHI 115 @ TOR 116 | TOR |
| 2025-11-19 | 2025-26 | TOR 121 @ PHI 112 | TOR |
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | TOR 120 @ PHI 130 | PHI |
| 2025-03-30 | 2024-25 | TOR 127 @ PHI 109 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works