TOR
PHX
Toronto Raptors @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
60% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Suns -14.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.0 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Suns 16th (+0.2).
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Upset odds: the Suns win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 14 or more.
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 2 time zones.
- Three-point shooting: Suns 13th (35.9%), Raptors 21st (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -3.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.4 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · PHX n/a | TOR 60% · PHX 40% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -151 · PHX +151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 111, Raptors 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 20 and Suns by 14.
Side by side
| TOR | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | 2025-26 | TOR 98 @ PHX 120 | PHX |
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | PHX 115 @ TOR 122 | TOR |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | TOR 89 @ PHX 129 | PHX |
| 2025-02-23 | 2024-25 | PHX 109 @ TOR 127 | TOR |
| 2024-03-07 | 2023-24 | TOR 113 @ PHX 120 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works