TOR
SAC
Toronto Raptors @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
77% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Kings 29th (-10.1).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Kings -16.6.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 7,680 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Kings win 2,320 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 7 or more.
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 3 time zones.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -9.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 230 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · SAC n/a | TOR 77% · SAC 23% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -332 · SAC +332 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 110, Raptors 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 26 and Kings by 7.
Side by side
| TOR | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 0-5 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | 2025-26 | SAC 123 @ TOR 115 | SAC |
| 2026-01-21 | 2025-26 | TOR 122 @ SAC 109 | TOR |
| 2024-11-06 | 2024-25 | TOR 107 @ SAC 122 | SAC |
| 2024-11-02 | 2024-25 | SAC 128 @ TOR 131 | TOR |
| 2024-03-20 | 2023-24 | SAC 123 @ TOR 89 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works