TOR
SAS
Toronto Raptors @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Simulation: the Spurs win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Spurs play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Raptors 9th (+3.0).
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Spurs 2nd (76.6%), Raptors 20th (73.6%).
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Spurs +6.6.
- Upset odds: the Raptors win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Raptors 3rd (16.2), Spurs 25th (13.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.8 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · SAS n/a | TOR 36% · SAS 64% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR +178 · SAS -178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 116, Raptors 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 12 and Spurs by 21.
Side by side
| TOR | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | 2025-26 | SAS 110 @ TOR 107 | SAS |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | TOR 103 @ SAS 121 | SAS |
| 2025-04-13 | 2024-25 | TOR 118 @ SAS 125 | SAS |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | SAS 123 @ TOR 89 | SAS |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | SAS 122 @ TOR 99 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works