TOR
UTA
Toronto Raptors @ Utah Jazz
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
68% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.2 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Jazz -7.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,820 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Raptors' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 15th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Home court: the Jazz play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,180 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 11 or more.
- Body clock: the Raptors cross 2 time zones.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Raptors 17th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · UTA n/a | TOR 68% · UTA 32% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -214 · UTA +214 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Jazz 113, Raptors 119.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 23 and Jazz by 11.
Side by side
| TOR | UTA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-4 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -7.9 27 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 111.1 20 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 119.0 29 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 53.6% 20 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 57.6% 30 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.8 21 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 12 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 34.4% 24 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 105.6 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-23 | 2025-26 | TOR 143 @ UTA 127 | TOR |
| 2026-02-01 | 2025-26 | UTA 100 @ TOR 107 | TOR |
| 2025-03-14 | 2024-25 | TOR 126 @ UTA 118 | TOR |
| 2025-03-07 | 2024-25 | UTA 109 @ TOR 118 | TOR |
| 2024-01-12 | 2023-24 | TOR 113 @ UTA 145 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works