TOR
WAS
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
TORToronto Raptors
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Raptors can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.1 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Raptors 9th (+3.0), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Raptors +15.0, Wizards -2.2.
- Simulation: the Raptors win 6,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 2.9 points to the Raptors in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Raptors may not
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,100 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Raptors lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 21st of 30 in three-point shooting (35.2%).
- Weak spot: the Raptors rank 20th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (73.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TOR -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.5 |
| Win chance | TOR n/a · WAS n/a | TOR 69% · WAS 31% |
| Fair moneyline | TOR -222 · WAS +222 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 112, Raptors 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Raptors by 23 and Wizards by 11.
Side by side
| TOR | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 2-3 |
| +3.0 9 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 112.4 15 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 109.4 7 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 54.3% 15 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 53.8% 8 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 13.6 8 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 25.7% 15 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 35.2% 21 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 101.8 21 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | 2026-27 | TOR 112 @ WAS 102 | TOR |
| 2026-02-28 | 2025-26 | TOR 134 @ WAS 125 | TOR |
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | TOR 117 @ WAS 138 | WAS |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | WAS 110 @ TOR 140 | TOR |
| 2025-03-24 | 2024-25 | TOR 112 @ WAS 104 | TOR |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works