UTA
ATL
Utah Jazz @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Hawks win 7,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Hawks +4.2, Jazz -7.8.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,660 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Hawks 27th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Hawks 20th (24.3%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -8.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 237 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · ATL n/a | UTA 27% · ATL 73% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +276 · ATL -276 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 123, Jazz 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 9 and Hawks by 25.
Side by side
| UTA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-3 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 119 @ ATL 121 | ATL |
| 2025-11-13 | 2025-26 | ATL 132 @ UTA 122 | ATL |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | UTA 134 @ ATL 147 | ATL |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | ATL 124 @ UTA 121 | ATL |
| 2024-03-15 | 2023-24 | ATL 122 @ UTA 124 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works