UTA

Utah Jazz @ Brooklyn Nets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

BKN

Our pick

BKNBrooklyn Nets

52% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.

AZMango model

UTA 48%BKN 52%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nets can win

Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Simulation: the Nets win 5,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
Body clock: the Jazz cross 2 time zones.
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Nets 12th (14.6), Jazz 20th (13.7).
Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Jazz 22nd (73.1%).

Disadvantages Why Nets may not

Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,790 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 26th.
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nets lose by 15 or more.
Weak spot: the Nets rank 30th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (105.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	BKN -0.6
Total points	n/a	235
Win chance	UTA n/a · BKN n/a	UTA 48% · BKN 52%
Fair moneyline		UTA +109 · BKN -109

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nets 118, Jazz 118.
80% of simulations land between Jazz by 15 and Nets by 17.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

UTA		BKN
1-4	Record	0-4
-7.9 27	Net rating	-9.9 28
111.1 20	Offensive rating	105.9 30
119.0 29	Defensive rating	115.9 26
53.6% 20	Effective FG%	52.0% 30
57.6% 30	Opponent eFG%	57.2% 28
14.8 21	Turnovers per 100	15.8 29
26.3% 12	Offensive rebound %	23.8% 23
34.4% 24	3-point %	34.2% 27
105.6 2	Pace	100.4 24

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-01-30	2025-26	BKN 109 @ UTA 99	BKN
2025-12-04	2025-26	UTA 123 @ BKN 110	UTA
2025-01-12	2024-25	BKN 111 @ UTA 112	UTA
2024-12-21	2024-25	UTA 105 @ BKN 94	UTA
2024-01-29	2023-24	UTA 114 @ BKN 147	BKN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

UTA

Lauri Markkanen F

25.8 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.9 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

UTA

Keyonte George G

23.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.2 ast in 33.1 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

UTA

Jaren Jackson Jr. F

18.9 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.3 ast in 25.1 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 26 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.2%)

BKN

Michael Porter Jr. F

24.1 pts, 7.1 reb, 2.9 ast in 32.5 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

BKN

Julius Randle F

22.5 pts, 7.5 reb, 5.8 ast in 35.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

BKN

Nic Claxton C

11.7 pts, 6.9 reb, 3.7 ast in 27.8 min, 57% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nets beat the Jazz 109-99 on the road (2026-01-30). The difference: they won the boards 47 to 33 and they made 14 threes to 10, a 12-point swing. Egor Demin led the Nets with 25 points.