UTA
BOS
Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Celtics +8.0, Jazz -7.8.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,080 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Celtics 29th (0.17).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.2 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · BOS n/a | UTA 21% · BOS 79% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +381 · BOS -381 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 121, Jazz 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 6 and Celtics by 27.
Side by side
| UTA | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | 2025-26 | BOS 129 @ UTA 119 | BOS |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-26 | UTA 105 @ BOS 103 | UTA |
| 2025-03-21 | 2024-25 | BOS 121 @ UTA 99 | BOS |
| 2025-03-10 | 2024-25 | UTA 108 @ BOS 114 | BOS |
| 2024-03-12 | 2023-24 | BOS 123 @ UTA 107 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works