UTA
CHI
Utah Jazz @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bulls
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bulls can win
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Bulls win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Jazz 22nd (73.1%).
- Strength: the Bulls rank 6th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (75.1%).
Disadvantages Why Bulls may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Jazz -7.8, Bulls -16.2.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Bulls 26th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bulls lose by 16 or more.
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Bulls defense that ranks 25th.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 242.6 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · CHI n/a | UTA 48% · CHI 52% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +109 · CHI -109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 122, Jazz 121.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 16 and Bulls by 17.
Side by side
| UTA | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | 2025-26 | UTA 126 @ CHI 128 | CHI |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | CHI 147 @ UTA 150 | UTA |
| 2025-03-17 | 2024-25 | CHI 111 @ UTA 97 | CHI |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | UTA 135 @ CHI 126 | UTA |
| 2024-03-06 | 2023-24 | CHI 119 @ UTA 117 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works