UTA
CLE
Utah Jazz @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Cavaliers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Cavaliers can win
- The Cavaliers' shooting (55.5% eFG%, 7th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Cavaliers in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Cavaliers 10th (+2.7), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Simulation: the Cavaliers win 7,100 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Cavaliers' offense (114.5 points per 100 possessions, 9th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Cavaliers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,900 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Cavaliers lose by 9 or more.
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
- Rest days: teams sometimes sit healthy players, which isn't always on the injury report early.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.4 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · CLE n/a | UTA 29% · CLE 71% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +245 · CLE -245 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Cavaliers 121, Jazz 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 9 and Cavaliers by 24.
Side by side
| UTA | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +2.7 10 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 114.5 9 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 111.8 15 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.5% 7 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 15 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.2 15 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 27.0% 8 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.4% 19 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.6 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | CLE 122 @ UTA 113 | CLE |
| 2026-01-12 | 2025-26 | UTA 123 @ CLE 112 | UTA |
| 2025-03-23 | 2024-25 | CLE 120 @ UTA 91 | CLE |
| 2024-12-23 | 2024-25 | UTA 113 @ CLE 124 | CLE |
| 2024-04-02 | 2023-24 | CLE 129 @ UTA 113 | CLE |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works