UTA
DAL
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.2 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Mavericks +2.0, Jazz -7.8.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.5 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,100 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Mavericks 25th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.4 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · DAL n/a | UTA 31% · DAL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +223 · DAL -223 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 121, Jazz 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 10 and Mavericks by 23.
Side by side
| UTA | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | UTA 120 @ DAL 138 | DAL |
| 2026-01-15 | 2025-26 | UTA 122 @ DAL 144 | DAL |
| 2026-01-08 | 2025-26 | DAL 114 @ UTA 116 | UTA |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-26 | DAL 133 @ UTA 140 | UTA |
| 2024-11-30 | 2024-25 | DAL 106 @ UTA 94 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works