UTA

Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets

Any-day matchup · ratings as of Oct 30, 7:50 PM ET

DEN

Our pick

DENDenver Nuggets

70% to win

A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.

AZMango model

UTA 30%DEN 70%

No market price for this matchup yet, so there is nothing to compare against.

Advantages Why Nuggets can win

The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
Simulation: the Nuggets win 7,000 of 10,000 simulated games.

Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not

Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,000 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Nuggets 28th (23.3%).
Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 10 or more.
Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Jazz 20th (13.7), Nuggets 30th (11.9).

The line and our numbers

	Market	AZMango
Spread	No line yet	DEN -7.1
Total points	n/a	234.6
Win chance	UTA n/a · DEN n/a	UTA 30% · DEN 70%
Fair moneyline		UTA +233 · DEN -233

No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.

10,000 simulated games, possession by possession

Typical score: Nuggets 121, Jazz 114.
80% of simulations land between Jazz by 10 and Nuggets by 23.

See live oddsBetMGM DraftKings FanDuel

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Side by side

UTA		DEN
1-4	Record	2-2
-7.9 27	Net rating	+4.1 7
111.1 20	Offensive rating	118.2 1
119.0 29	Defensive rating	114.1 21
53.6% 20	Effective FG%	56.9% 2
57.6% 30	Opponent eFG%	54.1% 13
14.8 21	Turnovers per 100	12.7 3
26.3% 12	Offensive rebound %	23.3% 28
34.4% 24	3-point %	38.8% 1
105.6 2	Pace	102.1 20

Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).

Last 5 meetings

Date	Season	Score	Winner
2026-04-01	2025-26	DEN 130 @ UTA 117	DEN
2026-03-27	2025-26	UTA 129 @ DEN 135	DEN
2026-03-02	2025-26	DEN 128 @ UTA 125	DEN
2025-12-22	2025-26	UTA 112 @ DEN 135	DEN
2025-03-28	2024-25	UTA 93 @ DEN 129	DEN

No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.

Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works

Player matchups

UTA

Lauri Markkanen F

25.8 pts, 6.8 reb, 2.1 ast in 33.9 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

UTA

Keyonte George G

23.7 pts, 3.7 reb, 6.2 ast in 33.1 min, 46% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

UTA

Jaren Jackson Jr. F

18.9 pts, 4.7 reb, 2.3 ast in 25.1 min, 49% FG

vs a defense ranked 21 of 30 (opponent eFG% 54.1%)

DEN

Nikola Jokic C

27.2 pts, 12.8 reb, 10.5 ast in 35.3 min, 55% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

DEN

Jamal Murray G

25.1 pts, 4.5 reb, 7 ast in 35.8 min, 47% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

DEN

Aaron Gordon F

15.5 pts, 5.8 reb, 2.6 ast in 28.2 min, 48% FG

vs a defense ranked 29 of 30 (opponent eFG% 57.6%)

Per-game averages, 2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons. Ordered by Game Score.

Last time they met

The Nuggets beat the Jazz 130-117 on the road (2026-04-01). The difference: they won the boards 53 to 44 and they made 9 more free throws (26 to 17). Jamal Murray led the Nuggets with 37 points.