UTA
DET
Utah Jazz @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.4 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pistons +6.4, Jazz -7.8.
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,050 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 1,950 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -11.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 228 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · DET n/a | UTA 20% · DET 80% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +413 · DET -413 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 120, Jazz 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 6 and Pistons by 28.
Side by side
| UTA | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-26 | 2025-26 | DET 129 @ UTA 131 | UTA |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 103 @ DET 114 | DET |
| 2025-03-03 | 2024-25 | DET 134 @ UTA 106 | DET |
| 2024-12-19 | 2024-25 | UTA 126 @ DET 119 | UTA |
| 2024-01-03 | 2023-24 | DET 148 @ UTA 154 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works