UTA
GSW
Utah Jazz @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,670 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Home court: the Warriors play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,330 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 11 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Warriors 24th (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Jazz 21st (14.8), Warriors 27th (15.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.8 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · GSW n/a | UTA 33% · GSW 67% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +200 · GSW -200 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 121, Jazz 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 11 and Warriors by 22.
Side by side
| UTA | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | 2025-26 | GSW 116 @ UTA 119 | UTA |
| 2026-01-28 | 2025-26 | GSW 140 @ UTA 124 | GSW |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025-26 | UTA 114 @ GSW 123 | GSW |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-26 | UTA 117 @ GSW 134 | GSW |
| 2025-02-05 | 2024-25 | GSW 128 @ UTA 131 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works