UTA
HOU
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
84% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.3 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Jazz -7.8.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.9 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 1,570 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Rockets 18th (0.20).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -13 |
| Total points | n/a | 231.4 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · HOU n/a | UTA 16% · HOU 84% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +539 · HOU -539 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 122, Jazz 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 4 and Rockets by 30.
Side by side
| UTA | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | 2025-26 | UTA 106 @ HOU 140 | HOU |
| 2026-02-23 | 2025-26 | UTA 105 @ HOU 125 | HOU |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-26 | HOU 125 @ UTA 133 | UTA |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025-26 | HOU 129 @ UTA 101 | HOU |
| 2025-04-02 | 2024-25 | UTA 105 @ HOU 143 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works