UTA
IND
Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Simulation: the Pacers win 6,090 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Pacers +0.2, Jazz -7.8.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The Pacers' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,910 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Pacers 29th (21.8%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 13 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Pacers 23rd (0.20).
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -3.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.7 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · IND n/a | UTA 39% · IND 61% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +156 · IND -156 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 120, Jazz 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 13 and Pacers by 20.
Side by side
| UTA | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | 2025-26 | UTA 131 @ IND 122 | UTA |
| 2025-11-11 | 2025-26 | IND 128 @ UTA 152 | UTA |
| 2025-04-04 | 2024-25 | UTA 112 @ IND 140 | IND |
| 2025-02-03 | 2024-25 | IND 112 @ UTA 111 | IND |
| 2024-01-15 | 2023-24 | IND 105 @ UTA 132 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works