UTA
LAC
Utah Jazz @ LA Clippers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LACLA Clippers
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Clippers can win
- The Clippers' shooting (55.9% eFG%, 4th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Clippers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Clippers win 6,950 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Clippers' offense (114.0 points per 100 possessions, 10th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Clippers 15th (+0.9), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
Disadvantages Why Clippers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,050 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Clippers lose by 10 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Clippers 24th (23.8%).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 25th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.8%).
- Weak spot: the Clippers rank 24th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -6.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 230.1 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · LAC n/a | UTA 30% · LAC 70% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +228 · LAC -228 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Clippers 119, Jazz 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 10 and Clippers by 23.
Side by side
| UTA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +0.9 15 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 114.0 10 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 113.0 18 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.9% 4 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 18 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.7 20 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 24 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 36.9% 5 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 99.6 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | 2025-26 | LAC 115 @ UTA 103 | LAC |
| 2026-01-01 | 2025-26 | UTA 101 @ LAC 118 | LAC |
| 2025-10-22 | 2025-26 | LAC 108 @ UTA 129 | UTA |
| 2025-02-13 | 2024-25 | LAC 120 @ UTA 116 | LAC |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | UTA 110 @ LAC 130 | LAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works