UTA
LAL
Utah Jazz @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.8 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Lakers +9.6, Jazz -7.8.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,200 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 7 or more.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Lakers 21st (24.2%).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 21st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -10.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.1 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · LAL n/a | UTA 22% · LAL 78% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +355 · LAL -355 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 122, Jazz 112.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 7 and Lakers by 27.
Side by side
| UTA | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-25 | 2026-27 | LAL 132 @ UTA 123 | LAL |
| 2026-04-12 | 2025-26 | UTA 107 @ LAL 131 | LAL |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025-26 | LAL 143 @ UTA 135 | LAL |
| 2025-11-23 | 2025-26 | LAL 108 @ UTA 106 | LAL |
| 2025-11-18 | 2025-26 | UTA 126 @ LAL 140 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works