UTA
MEM
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Jazz -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.2 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 7,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.6 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,740 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -7.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 234.2 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · MEM n/a | UTA 27% · MEM 73% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +265 · MEM -265 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 121, Jazz 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 9 and Grizzlies by 24.
Side by side
| UTA | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 5-0 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | MEM 110 @ UTA 105 | MEM |
| 2026-10-21 | 2026-27 | UTA 103 @ MEM 123 | MEM |
| 2026-04-10 | 2025-26 | MEM 101 @ UTA 147 | UTA |
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | UTA 114 @ MEM 123 | MEM |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | MEM 137 @ UTA 128 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works