UTA
MIA
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Heat
65% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Heat can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Heat 12th (+1.6), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Heat' offense (113.4 points per 100 possessions, 11th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
- Simulation: the Heat win 6,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Heat' shooting (54.1% eFG%, 17th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Home court: the Heat play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Heat may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Heat lose by 12 or more.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Heat 16th (0.21).
- Weak spot: the Heat rank 22nd of 30 in points allowed per game (118.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 239.7 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · MIA n/a | UTA 35% · MIA 65% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +182 · MIA -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Heat 122, Jazz 117.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 12 and Heat by 21.
Side by side
| UTA | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-4 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +1.6 12 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 113.4 11 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 111.8 14 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 54.1% 17 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.2% 14 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.8 4 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 16 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.9% 12 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 106.3 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | 2025-26 | UTA 115 @ MIA 111 | UTA |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | MIA 147 @ UTA 116 | MIA |
| 2025-01-09 | 2024-25 | MIA 97 @ UTA 92 | MIA |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024-25 | UTA 136 @ MIA 100 | UTA |
| 2024-03-02 | 2023-24 | UTA 120 @ MIA 126 | MIA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works