UTA
OKC
Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
OKCOklahoma City Thunder
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Thunder can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.4 points to the Thunder in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Thunder 1st (+10.0), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Thunder' shooting (55.6% eFG%, 6th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Thunder win 8,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Thunder' offense (115.4 points per 100 possessions, 4th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why Thunder may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 1,980 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Thunder 27th (23.4%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Thunder lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Thunder rank 27th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.4%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Thunder 14th (0.21).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | OKC -11.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.6 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · OKC n/a | UTA 20% · OKC 80% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +405 · OKC -405 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Thunder 120, Jazz 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 6 and Thunder by 28.
Side by side
| UTA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +10.0 1 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 115.4 4 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 105.5 1 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.6% 6 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 51.8% 3 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.5 1 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 27 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 36.2% 10 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.2 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 111 @ OKC 146 | OKC |
| 2026-01-07 | 2025-26 | UTA 125 @ OKC 129 | OKC |
| 2025-12-07 | 2025-26 | OKC 131 @ UTA 101 | OKC |
| 2025-11-21 | 2025-26 | OKC 144 @ UTA 112 | OKC |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | OKC 145 @ UTA 111 | OKC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works