UTA
ORL
Utah Jazz @ Orlando Magic
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ORLOrlando Magic
63% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Magic can win
- Simulation: the Magic win 6,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Magic 17th (-0.2), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- Home court: the Magic play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.6 points to the Magic in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Magic 17th (-0.1), Jazz 27th (-8.4).
Disadvantages Why Magic may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,700 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Magic lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 29th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.0%).
- Weak spot: the Magic rank 28th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.4%).
- Offensive rebounding (share of misses): Jazz 12th (26.3%), Magic 19th (24.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ORL -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · ORL n/a | UTA 37% · ORL 63% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +170 · ORL -170 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Magic 119, Jazz 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 12 and Magic by 21.
Side by side
| UTA | ORL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-3 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -0.2 17 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 110.4 22 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 110.6 9 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 28 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 53.9% 9 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.9 11 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 24.8% 19 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 34.0% 29 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 103.1 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | UTA 117 @ ORL 120 | ORL |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | ORL 128 @ UTA 127 | ORL |
| 2025-02-01 | 2024-25 | ORL 99 @ UTA 113 | UTA |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024-25 | UTA 105 @ ORL 92 | UTA |
| 2024-02-29 | 2023-24 | UTA 107 @ ORL 115 | ORL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works