UTA
PHI
Utah Jazz @ Philadelphia 76ers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia 76ers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why 76ers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.8 points to the 76ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the 76ers win 7,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, 76ers +3.4, Jazz -7.8.
- Home court: the 76ers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- The 76ers' offense (111.2 points per 100 possessions, 19th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 29th.
Disadvantages Why 76ers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,930 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the 76ers lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 27th of 30 in effective shooting (eFG%) (52.7%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 26th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (72.3%).
- Weak spot: the 76ers rank 23rd of 30 in three-point shooting (34.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.4 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · PHI n/a | UTA 29% · PHI 71% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +241 · PHI -241 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: 76ers 120, Jazz 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 10 and 76ers by 24.
Side by side
| UTA | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 4-1 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -0.9 20 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 111.2 19 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 112.1 16 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 52.7% 27 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 11 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.1 5 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 25.1% 18 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 34.7% 23 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.7 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | 2025-26 | PHI 126 @ UTA 116 | PHI |
| 2026-03-04 | 2025-26 | UTA 102 @ PHI 106 | PHI |
| 2025-03-09 | 2024-25 | UTA 122 @ PHI 126 | PHI |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024-25 | PHI 114 @ UTA 111 | PHI |
| 2024-02-01 | 2023-24 | PHI 127 @ UTA 124 | PHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works