UTA
PHX
Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PHXPhoenix Suns
64% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Suns can win
- Simulation: the Suns win 6,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Suns 16th (+0.2), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Suns' shooting (53.7% eFG%, 19th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to the Suns in our ratings.
- Home court: the Suns play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
Disadvantages Why Suns may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 3,590 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Jazz -7.8, Suns -14.3.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Suns 28th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Suns lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: the Suns rank 28th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.4%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHX -4.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.3 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · PHX n/a | UTA 36% · PHX 64% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +178 · PHX -178 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Suns 119, Jazz 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 12 and Suns by 21.
Side by side
| UTA | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 1-2 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +0.2 16 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 111.8 17 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 111.6 13 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 53.7% 19 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.3% 16 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 19 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 28.7% 7 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.9% 13 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 100.3 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | 2025-26 | UTA 109 @ PHX 134 | PHX |
| 2025-10-31 | 2025-26 | UTA 96 @ PHX 118 | PHX |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-26 | PHX 134 @ UTA 138 | UTA |
| 2025-02-07 | 2024-25 | UTA 127 @ PHX 135 | PHX |
| 2025-01-11 | 2024-25 | UTA 106 @ PHX 114 | PHX |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works