UTA
POR
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
PORPortland Trail Blazers
72% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Trail Blazers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Trail Blazers +8.8, Jazz -7.8.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.1 points to the Trail Blazers in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Trail Blazers win 7,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Trail Blazers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Trail Blazers 18th (-0.5), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
Disadvantages Why Trail Blazers may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 2,780 of 10,000 simulations (28%). A 72% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Trail Blazers lose by 9 or more.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Jazz 21st (14.8), Trail Blazers 30th (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 30th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (16.3).
- Weak spot: the Trail Blazers rank 28th of 30 in three-point shooting (34.1%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | POR -7.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 235.1 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · POR n/a | UTA 28% · POR 72% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +260 · POR -260 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Trail Blazers 121, Jazz 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 9 and Trail Blazers by 24.
Side by side
| UTA | POR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-1 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -0.5 18 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 110.9 21 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 111.4 12 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 53.2% 24 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 12 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 16.3 30 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 30.9% 2 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 34.1% 28 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 103.7 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-13 | 2025-26 | UTA 114 @ POR 124 | POR |
| 2026-02-12 | 2025-26 | POR 135 @ UTA 119 | POR |
| 2026-01-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 117 @ POR 137 | POR |
| 2025-10-29 | 2025-26 | POR 136 @ UTA 134 | POR |
| 2025-04-09 | 2024-25 | POR 126 @ UTA 133 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works