UTA
SAC
Utah Jazz @ Sacramento Kings
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
UTAUtah Jazz
56% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Jazz can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Jazz -7.8, Kings -16.6.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.0 points to the Jazz in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Jazz win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 29th.
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Kings defense that ranks 28th.
Disadvantages Why Jazz may not
- Upset odds: the Kings win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home court: the Kings play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Jazz lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (57.6%).
- Weak spot: the Jazz rank 30th of 30 in points allowed per game (125.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | UTA -1.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.9 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · SAC n/a | UTA 56% · SAC 44% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA -125 · SAC +125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Kings 118, Jazz 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 18 and Kings by 15.
Side by side
| UTA | SAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 0-5 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -10.1 29 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 108.3 28 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 118.5 28 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 52.4% 29 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 57.3% 29 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.1 14 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 25.8% 14 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 33.8% 30 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.4 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | 2025-26 | UTA 111 @ SAC 116 | SAC |
| 2026-02-11 | 2025-26 | SAC 93 @ UTA 121 | UTA |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | SAC 119 @ UTA 128 | UTA |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | UTA 104 @ SAC 105 | SAC |
| 2025-02-26 | 2024-25 | SAC 118 @ UTA 101 | SAC |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works