UTA
SAS
Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
SASSan Antonio Spurs
83% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Spurs can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.2 points to the Spurs in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Spurs 2nd (+7.7), Jazz 27th (-7.9).
- The Spurs' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 8th in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Spurs win 8,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Spurs +6.6, Jazz -7.8.
Disadvantages Why Spurs may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 1,740 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Spurs lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: the Spurs rank 25th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (13.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SAS -12.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.8 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · SAS n/a | UTA 17% · SAS 83% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +474 · SAS -474 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Spurs 123, Jazz 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 5 and Spurs by 29.
Side by side
| UTA | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 3-2 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | +7.7 2 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 115.2 5 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 107.5 3 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 8 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 2 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.3 6 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 26.4% 10 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.8% 14 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 102.5 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-28 | 2026-27 | SAS 117 @ UTA 111 | SAS |
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | SAS 126 @ UTA 109 | SAS |
| 2026-01-19 | 2025-26 | UTA 110 @ SAS 123 | SAS |
| 2025-12-27 | 2025-26 | UTA 127 @ SAS 114 | UTA |
| 2024-11-26 | 2024-25 | SAS 128 @ UTA 115 | SAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works