UTA
WAS
Utah Jazz @ Washington Wizards
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Wizards
55% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Wizards can win
- Home court: the Wizards play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Wizards win 5,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Jazz defense that ranks 30th.
- Body clock: the Jazz cross 2 time zones.
- Three-point shooting: Wizards 18th (35.5%), Jazz 24th (34.4%).
Disadvantages Why Wizards may not
- Upset odds: the Jazz win 4,550 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- The Jazz' offense (111.1 points per 100 possessions, 20th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- The Jazz' shooting (53.6% eFG%, 20th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Jazz 8th (0.22), Wizards 26th (0.18).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Wizards lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 236.4 |
| Win chance | UTA n/a · WAS n/a | UTA 46% · WAS 55% |
| Fair moneyline | UTA +120 · WAS -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Wizards 119, Jazz 118.
- 80% of simulations land between Jazz by 15 and Wizards by 18.
Side by side
| UTA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 | Record | 2-3 |
| -7.9 27 | Net rating | -10.9 30 |
| 111.1 20 | Offensive rating | 108.2 29 |
| 119.0 29 | Defensive rating | 119.2 30 |
| 53.6% 20 | Effective FG% | 53.5% 21 |
| 57.6% 30 | Opponent eFG% | 55.9% 27 |
| 14.8 21 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 23 |
| 26.3% 12 | Offensive rebound % | 23.9% 22 |
| 34.4% 24 | 3-point % | 35.5% 18 |
| 105.6 2 | Pace | 104.3 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-25 | 2025-26 | WAS 133 @ UTA 110 | WAS |
| 2026-03-05 | 2025-26 | UTA 122 @ WAS 112 | UTA |
| 2025-03-19 | 2024-25 | WAS 112 @ UTA 128 | UTA |
| 2025-03-05 | 2024-25 | UTA 122 @ WAS 125 | WAS |
| 2024-03-04 | 2023-24 | WAS 115 @ UTA 127 | UTA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works