WAS
ATL
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Hawks
73% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.9 points to the Hawks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hawks 14th (+1.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Hawks win 7,300 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hawks' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 11th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Hawks' offense (112.5 points per 100 possessions, 14th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why Hawks may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,700 of 10,000 simulations (27%). A 73% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hawks lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 27th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.18).
- Weak spot: the Hawks rank 20th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.3%).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -8 |
| Total points | n/a | 235 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · ATL n/a | WAS 27% · ATL 73% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +270 · ATL -270 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hawks 122, Wizards 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 9 and Hawks by 24.
Side by side
| WAS | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-3 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +1.2 14 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 112.5 14 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 111.3 11 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 11 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 54.6% 19 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 13.6 7 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 24.3% 20 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 36.7% 7 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 104.3 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | 2025-26 | WAS 96 @ ATL 126 | ATL |
| 2026-02-24 | 2025-26 | WAS 98 @ ATL 119 | ATL |
| 2025-12-06 | 2025-26 | ATL 131 @ WAS 116 | ATL |
| 2025-11-25 | 2025-26 | ATL 113 @ WAS 132 | WAS |
| 2025-02-08 | 2024-25 | ATL 125 @ WAS 111 | ATL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works