WAS
BKN
Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BKNBrooklyn Nets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nets can win
- Home court: the Nets play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Nets win 5,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Nets 13th (74.1%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
- Getting to the line (free throws per shot): Nets 11th (0.21), Wizards 26th (0.18).
- History: the Nets won 4 of the last 5 meetings (rosters change, so this says little).
Disadvantages Why Nets may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,880 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Nets -9.8.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Nets defense that ranks 28th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nets lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nets rank 30th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (105.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BKN -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 233 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · BKN n/a | WAS 49% · BKN 51% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +105 · BKN -105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nets 117, Wizards 116.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 16 and Nets by 17.
Side by side
| WAS | BKN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 0-4 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -9.9 28 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 105.9 30 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 115.9 26 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 52.0% 30 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 57.2% 28 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.8 29 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 23.8% 23 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 34.2% 27 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 100.4 24 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ BKN 121 | BKN |
| 2026-02-07 | 2025-26 | WAS 113 @ BKN 127 | BKN |
| 2026-01-02 | 2025-26 | BKN 99 @ WAS 119 | WAS |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025-26 | BKN 129 @ WAS 106 | BKN |
| 2025-03-29 | 2024-25 | BKN 115 @ WAS 112 | BKN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works