WAS
BOS
Washington Wizards @ Boston Celtics
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
BOSBoston Celtics
78% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Celtics can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Celtics 4th (+7.5), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.5 points to the Celtics in our ratings.
- The Celtics' offense (116.6 points per 100 possessions, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Simulation: the Celtics win 7,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Celtics' shooting (55.1% eFG%, 10th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Celtics may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,200 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Celtics lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 29th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.17).
- Weak spot: the Celtics rank 27th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BOS -10.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.3 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · BOS n/a | WAS 22% · BOS 78% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +356 · BOS -356 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Celtics 120, Wizards 109.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 7 and Celtics by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | BOS | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +7.5 4 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 116.6 2 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 109.1 5 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.1% 10 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 52.2% 4 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 2 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 29.0% 6 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 36.5% 8 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 98.1 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | 2025-26 | WAS 100 @ BOS 111 | BOS |
| 2025-12-04 | 2025-26 | BOS 146 @ WAS 101 | BOS |
| 2025-11-05 | 2025-26 | WAS 107 @ BOS 136 | BOS |
| 2025-04-06 | 2024-25 | WAS 90 @ BOS 124 | BOS |
| 2024-12-15 | 2024-25 | BOS 112 @ WAS 98 | BOS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works