WAS
CHA
Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHACharlotte Hornets
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Hornets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Hornets 8th (+3.7), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Hornets' offense (114.6 points per 100 possessions, 7th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to the Hornets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Hornets win 6,690 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Hornets' shooting (54.7% eFG%, 13th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
Disadvantages Why Hornets may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,310 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Hornets lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.6).
- Weak spot: the Hornets rank 28th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.7).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Wizards 22nd (13.2), Hornets 28th (12.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHA -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 225.2 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · CHA n/a | WAS 33% · CHA 67% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +203 · CHA -203 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Hornets 116, Wizards 110.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 11 and Hornets by 23.
Side by side
| WAS | CHA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +3.7 8 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 114.6 7 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 110.9 10 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 54.7% 13 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 54.0% 10 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.6 28 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 30.5% 4 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 37.2% 4 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 100.3 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-26 | 2026-27 | WAS 103 @ CHA 110 | CHA |
| 2026-02-22 | 2025-26 | CHA 129 @ WAS 112 | CHA |
| 2026-01-24 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ CHA 119 | CHA |
| 2025-12-23 | 2025-26 | WAS 109 @ CHA 126 | CHA |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025-26 | CHA 139 @ WAS 113 | CHA |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works