WAS
CHI
Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bulls
52% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why Bulls can win
- The Bulls' shooting (54.3% eFG%, 14th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Home court: the Bulls play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Simulation: the Bulls win 5,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Defensive rebounding (share of misses): Bulls 6th (75.1%), Wizards 30th (70.0%).
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Bulls 24th (-5.5), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
Disadvantages Why Bulls may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Wizards -2.2, Bulls -16.2.
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 4,850 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Bulls lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: the Bulls rank 29th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.2).
- Weak spot: the Bulls rank 28th of 30 in points allowed per game (122.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 240.6 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · CHI n/a | WAS 48% · CHI 52% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +106 · CHI -106 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Bulls 121, Wizards 120.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 16 and Bulls by 17.
Side by side
| WAS | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 1-4 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -5.5 24 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 110.1 25 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 115.6 25 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 54.3% 14 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 55.3% 21 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 17 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 26 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.0% 22 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 105.5 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | 2026-27 | WAS 124 @ CHI 120 | WAS |
| 2026-04-09 | 2025-26 | CHI 119 @ WAS 108 | CHI |
| 2026-04-07 | 2025-26 | CHI 129 @ WAS 98 | CHI |
| 2025-11-22 | 2025-26 | WAS 120 @ CHI 121 | CHI |
| 2025-04-11 | 2024-25 | WAS 89 @ CHI 119 | CHI |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works