WAS
DAL
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Mavericks
69% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Mavericks can win
- Simulation: the Mavericks win 6,920 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Home court: the Mavericks play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 1.7 points to the Mavericks in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Mavericks 23rd (-4.8), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
Disadvantages Why Mavericks may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,080 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Mavericks lose by 10 or more.
- Three-point shooting: Wizards 18th (35.5%), Mavericks 26th (34.4%).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.7).
- Weak spot: the Mavericks rank 26th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (12.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · DAL n/a | WAS 31% · DAL 69% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +225 · DAL -225 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Mavericks 120, Wizards 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 10 and Mavericks by 23.
Side by side
| WAS | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -4.8 23 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 108.7 26 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 113.5 20 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 52.9% 25 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 54.5% 17 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 13 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 23.4% 25 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 34.4% 26 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 105.0 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-08 | 2025-26 | DAL 111 @ WAS 105 | DAL |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-26 | WAS 117 @ DAL 107 | WAS |
| 2025-01-27 | 2024-25 | WAS 108 @ DAL 130 | DAL |
| 2024-12-05 | 2024-25 | DAL 137 @ WAS 101 | DAL |
| 2024-02-12 | 2023-24 | WAS 104 @ DAL 112 | DAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works