WAS
DEN
Washington Wizards @ Denver Nuggets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Nuggets
70% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Nuggets can win
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Nuggets 7th (+4.1), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Nuggets' shooting (56.9% eFG%, 2nd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- The Nuggets' offense (118.2 points per 100 possessions, 1st in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to the Nuggets in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Nuggets win 7,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why Nuggets may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,970 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Nuggets lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 30th of 30 in turnovers forced per 100 possessions (11.9).
- Weak spot: the Nuggets rank 28th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (23.3%).
- Turnovers forced per 100 possessions: Wizards 22nd (13.2), Nuggets 30th (11.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.6 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · DEN n/a | WAS 30% · DEN 70% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +236 · DEN -236 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Nuggets 120, Wizards 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 10 and Nuggets by 23.
Side by side
| WAS | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-2 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +4.1 7 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 118.2 1 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 114.1 21 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 56.9% 2 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 54.1% 13 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 12.7 3 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 23.3% 28 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 38.8% 1 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.1 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-22 | 2025-26 | DEN 107 @ WAS 97 | DEN |
| 2026-01-17 | 2025-26 | WAS 115 @ DEN 121 | DEN |
| 2025-03-15 | 2024-25 | WAS 126 @ DEN 123 | WAS |
| 2024-12-07 | 2024-25 | DEN 113 @ WAS 122 | WAS |
| 2024-02-22 | 2023-24 | WAS 110 @ DEN 130 | DEN |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works