WAS
DET
Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Pistons
80% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pistons can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 6.2 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Pistons 5th (+7.0), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Pistons win 8,040 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 3.3 points to the Pistons in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Pistons 5th (+7.2), Wizards 30th (-11.4).
Disadvantages Why Pistons may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 1,960 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pistons lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pistons rank 24th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.0).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -11.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 226.1 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · DET n/a | WAS 20% · DET 80% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +410 · DET -410 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pistons 119, Wizards 107.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 6 and Pistons by 28.
Side by side
| WAS | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +7.0 5 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 113.2 12 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 106.2 2 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 54.2% 16 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 51.4% 1 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.0 24 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 30.8% 3 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.8% 15 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.1 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-19 | 2025-26 | DET 117 @ WAS 95 | DET |
| 2026-03-17 | 2025-26 | DET 130 @ WAS 117 | DET |
| 2026-02-05 | 2025-26 | WAS 126 @ DET 117 | WAS |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-26 | WAS 135 @ DET 137 | DET |
| 2025-03-13 | 2024-25 | WAS 129 @ DET 125 | WAS |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works