WAS
GSW
Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
GSWGolden State Warriors
67% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Warriors can win
- The Warriors' shooting (55.0% eFG%, 12th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Warriors win 6,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to the Warriors in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Warriors 19th (-0.7), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- The Warriors' offense (112.2 points per 100 possessions, 16th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
Disadvantages Why Warriors may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,290 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Warriors lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 27th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.5).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 24th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.6%).
- Weak spot: the Warriors rank 24th of 30 in getting to the line (free throws per shot) (0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GSW -5.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.8 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · GSW n/a | WAS 33% · GSW 67% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +204 · GSW -204 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Warriors 120, Wizards 114.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 11 and Warriors by 22.
Side by side
| WAS | GSW | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -0.7 19 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 112.2 16 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 112.9 17 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 55.0% 12 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 55.6% 24 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.5 27 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 26.3% 11 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.7% 16 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 102.3 17 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | 2025-26 | WAS 126 @ GSW 131 | GSW |
| 2026-03-16 | 2025-26 | GSW 125 @ WAS 117 | GSW |
| 2025-01-18 | 2024-25 | WAS 114 @ GSW 122 | GSW |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024-25 | GSW 125 @ WAS 112 | GSW |
| 2024-02-27 | 2023-24 | GSW 123 @ WAS 112 | GSW |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works