WAS
HOU
Washington Wizards @ Houston Rockets
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Rockets
84% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Rockets can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 7.2 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Rockets 6th (+5.2), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
- Simulation: the Rockets win 8,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Rockets +14.2, Wizards -2.2.
- Efficiency (points per 100 possessions): worth about 4.1 points to the Rockets in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why Rockets may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 1,650 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Rockets lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: the Rockets rank 26th of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (15.4).
- Shooting variance: one hot or cold night from three can swing an NBA game by 15 points.
- Late scratches: stars can be ruled out right up to tip-off, after our last update.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -12.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 229.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · HOU n/a | WAS 16% · HOU 84% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +505 · HOU -505 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Rockets 121, Wizards 108.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 4 and Rockets by 29.
Side by side
| WAS | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +5.2 6 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 114.6 8 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 109.4 6 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 54.0% 18 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 53.0% 6 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 15.4 26 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 34.3% 1 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 36.2% 11 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 100.0 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | 2025-26 | HOU 123 @ WAS 118 | HOU |
| 2025-11-12 | 2025-26 | WAS 112 @ HOU 135 | HOU |
| 2025-01-07 | 2024-25 | HOU 135 @ WAS 112 | HOU |
| 2024-11-11 | 2024-25 | WAS 92 @ HOU 107 | HOU |
| 2024-03-19 | 2023-24 | HOU 137 @ WAS 114 | HOU |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works