WAS
IND
Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndiana Pacers
61% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why Pacers can win
- Simulation: the Pacers win 6,140 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Pacers play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to the Pacers in our ratings.
- The Pacers' shooting (53.3% eFG%, 22nd in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions): Pacers 12th (14.0), Wizards 23rd (15.0).
Disadvantages Why Pacers may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 3,860 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Pacers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 29th of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (21.8%).
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 27th of 30 in offense, points per 100 possessions (108.4).
- Weak spot: the Pacers rank 26th of 30 in net rating (points per 100 possessions) (-7.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 233.7 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · IND n/a | WAS 39% · IND 61% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +159 · IND -159 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Pacers 119, Wizards 115.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 13 and Pacers by 20.
Side by side
| WAS | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 2-3 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -7.2 26 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 108.4 27 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 115.6 24 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 22 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 55.4% 22 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.0 12 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 21.8% 29 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.3% 20 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 103.9 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | 2025-26 | IND 118 @ WAS 131 | WAS |
| 2026-02-19 | 2025-26 | IND 105 @ WAS 112 | WAS |
| 2025-12-14 | 2025-26 | WAS 108 @ IND 89 | WAS |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025-26 | WAS 86 @ IND 119 | IND |
| 2025-04-08 | 2024-25 | WAS 98 @ IND 104 | IND |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works