WAS
LAL
Washington Wizards @ Los Angeles Lakers
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
LALLos Angeles Lakers
79% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why Lakers can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 5.7 points to the Lakers in our ratings.
- The Lakers' shooting (57.2% eFG%, 1st in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 27th.
- Simulation: the Lakers win 7,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- The Lakers' offense (114.7 points per 100 possessions, 6th in the NBA) meets a Wizards defense that ranks 30th.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Lakers 13th (+1.5), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
Disadvantages Why Lakers may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,070 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Lakers lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 22nd of 30 in ball security (turnovers per 100 possessions) (14.9).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 21st of 30 in offensive rebounding (share of misses) (24.2%).
- Weak spot: the Lakers rank 20th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAL -10.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.1 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · LAL n/a | WAS 21% · LAL 79% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +384 · LAL -384 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Lakers 121, Wizards 111.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 6 and Lakers by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 4-1 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | +1.5 13 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 114.7 6 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 113.2 19 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 57.2% 1 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 55.2% 20 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.9 22 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 24.2% 21 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 36.3% 9 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 100.5 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | 2025-26 | WAS 101 @ LAL 120 | LAL |
| 2026-01-30 | 2025-26 | LAL 142 @ WAS 111 | LAL |
| 2025-01-30 | 2024-25 | LAL 134 @ WAS 96 | LAL |
| 2025-01-21 | 2024-25 | WAS 88 @ LAL 111 | LAL |
| 2024-04-03 | 2023-24 | LAL 125 @ WAS 120 | LAL |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works