WAS
MEM
Washington Wizards @ Memphis Grizzlies
Any-day matchup · ratings as of
Our pick
MEMMemphis Grizzlies
71% to win
A probability, not a promise. A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why Grizzlies can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last five games, Grizzlies +12.0, Wizards -2.2.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 4.0 points to the Grizzlies in our ratings.
- Simulation: the Grizzlies win 7,120 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home court: the Grizzlies play at home, worth about 2 points in today's NBA.
- Net rating (points per 100 possessions): Grizzlies 22nd (-4.8), Wizards 30th (-10.9).
Disadvantages Why Grizzlies may not
- Upset odds: the Wizards win 2,880 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- The Wizards' shooting (53.5% eFG%, 21st in the NBA) meets a Grizzlies defense that ranks 26th.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations the Grizzlies lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 29th of 30 in defensive rebounding (share of misses) (71.0%).
- Weak spot: the Grizzlies rank 26th of 30 in shooting allowed (opponent eFG%) (55.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MEM -7.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 232.2 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · MEM n/a | WAS 29% · MEM 71% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +247 · MEM -247 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games, possession by possession
- Typical score: Grizzlies 120, Wizards 113.
- 80% of simulations land between Wizards by 10 and Grizzlies by 24.
Side by side
| WAS | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 5-0 |
| -10.9 30 | Net rating | -4.8 22 |
| 108.2 29 | Offensive rating | 110.2 23 |
| 119.2 30 | Defensive rating | 114.9 22 |
| 53.5% 21 | Effective FG% | 53.3% 23 |
| 55.9% 27 | Opponent eFG% | 55.8% 26 |
| 15.0 23 | Turnovers per 100 | 14.5 18 |
| 23.9% 22 | Offensive rebound % | 25.2% 17 |
| 35.5% 18 | 3-point % | 35.5% 17 |
| 104.3 5 | Pace | 104.3 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best of 30; pace 1 = fastest). Ratings are points per 100 possessions (2025-26 and 2026-27 seasons).
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Season | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025-26 | MEM 112 @ WAS 116 | WAS |
| 2025-12-20 | 2025-26 | WAS 130 @ MEM 122 | WAS |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024-25 | MEM 140 @ WAS 112 | MEM |
| 2024-11-08 | 2024-25 | WAS 104 @ MEM 128 | MEM |
| 2024-03-12 | 2023-24 | WAS 97 @ MEM 109 | MEM |
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (in the backtest they pick about 66% of winners, against about 68% for the closing line), with both teams at full strength.
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 simulated games, checked against a walk-forward backtest of 10,227 NBA games since 2018-19. Model version 1. How it works